Pakistan’s agriculture is entering a period in which the weather itself is becoming harder to predict. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall and increasingly frequent extreme weather events are putting pressure on crops, water availability and ultimately the income of farmers.
The challenge is particularly important for Pakistan because agriculture remains a major part of the national economy. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, agriculture accounted for 23.44 percent of GDP, while the sector grew by 2.89 percent during the year. The performance of major crops, however was mixed: wheat production increased by 4.3 percent and rice by 2.8 percent, while cotton declined by 0.5 percent and maize by 2.7 percent.
The latest production figures also show the scale of these crops. Pakistan produced around 29.61 million tonnes of wheat, 9.99 million tonnes of rice, 8.79 million tonnes of maize and 7.05 million bales of cotton in 2025-26, according to the Economic Survey.
These numbers, however, tell only part of the story. Behind annual production figures is a farming system increasingly exposed to changes in temperature and rainfall.
Heat is becoming a bigger agricultural risk
Pakistan Meteorological Department’s seasonal outlook for 2026 highlighted the possibility of above-normal temperatures across much of the country during the summer period, with rainfall varying across regions. PMD continues to identify increasing temperature and climate variability as important challenges for agriculture and water-resource management.
Scientific research also points to a clear relationship between heat and crop productivity. A study examining Pakistan’s major crops from 2000 to 2019 found that rising temperatures had a significant negative long-term effect on crop production.
Another study focusing on Punjab found that heat stress could become a major factor affecting rice, maize and cotton yields. For the Lower Chenab Canal region, climate models projected temperature increases of up to 1.8°C by mid-century. Under a high-emissions scenario, the study projected potential yield declines of up to 10–19 percent for maize and 4–26 percent for rice by 2050, depending on the model used.
This is important because irrigation alone may not fully protect crops from rising temperatures. Heat affects plants directly, particularly during sensitive stages of growth, flowering and grain formation.
Wheat offers another warning
Wheat, Pakistan’s most important staple crop, is also showing signs of growing climate pressure.
A 2026 study using 41 years of data, from 1980 to 2020, from Islamabad and Chakwal found that warmer conditions shortened the wheat growing cycle considerably. At Chakwal, the time to maturity fell from about 155 days to 85 days while at Islamabad it fell from 163 days to 93 days over the study period.
The study also recorded declines in simulated/observed wheat grain yield from 2.0 to 1.5 tonnes per hectare in Chakwal and from 2.3 to 1.4 tonnes per hectare in Islamabad. Delayed sowing was particularly damaging, with simulated yield losses reaching 27 percent in Islamabad and 25 percent in Chakwal under the scenarios examined.
These figures do not mean that every decline in production is caused by climate change. Fertilizer use, seed varieties irrigation, cultivated area, technology, market prices and government policies also influence agricultural output. In fact, Pakistan’s recent official data show that changes in cultivated area and input use have played an important role in crop performance.
That distinction is important when looking at the long-term climate story.
Rainfall is not simply about more or less rain
For farmers rainfall is useful only when it comes at the right time and in the right amount.
Heavy rainfall can damage standing crops through waterlogging, flooding and soil erosion. On the other hand, longer dry spells can increase dependence on irrigation at a time when water resources are already under pressure.
Research on Pakistan has found that precipitation has substantial year-to-year variability, while temperature trends are becoming increasingly important for crop productivity. Studies have also found that the impact of temperature and rainfall differs across crops and agro-ecological zones.
This means that there is no single climate impact for the entire country. A rise in temperature that affects wheat in Punjab may have a different effect on rice in Sindh or maize in another agricultural zone.
The bigger question is productivity, not just production
Pakistan’s total crop production can increase even when climate conditions become less favourable, particularly if farmers cultivate more land, use better seeds, apply more fertilizer or improve irrigation.
That is why the more meaningful measure is yield per hectare.
The key question for Pakistan is whether farmers will continue producing more because of improvements in technology and inputs, or whether climate-related stress will gradually reduce the productivity gains that agriculture has achieved over the past decades.
A long term comparison of 2000 2026 temperature, rainfall irrigation water availability and per-hectare yields for wheat rice cotton and maize could provide a much clearer picture.
Such an analysis would not simply ask whether Pakistan is producing more crops. It would ask a more important question: how much more is Pakistan having to invest in land water and agricultural inputs to produce each additional tonne of food under a changing climate?
For a country of more than 240 million people, that question is directly linked to food security farmer incomes and the future availability of water.
Climate change is therefore no longer only an environmental story for Pakistan. It is increasingly an agricultural and economic story one that will be measured not only in degrees Celsius and millimetres of rainfall, but also in tonnes per hectare, farm incomes and the cost of putting food on the table.
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