Hannan
PAKISTAN does not need another reminder that its weather is changing.
From prolonged heatwaves to irregular rainfall, extended dry spells to sudden heavy downpours, the country is increasingly experiencing weather that is difficult to predict and even harder to prepare for. The consequences are no longer limited to weather stations or climate reports. They are being felt on farms, in reservoirs, across cities and inside homes.
Water availability, agriculture, public health, infrastructure and everyday life are all increasingly tied to a changing weather pattern.
As Pakistan moves into the final months of 2026, the bigger question is not simply what the next season will bring. It is whether the country is prepared for a climate in which weather can become more variable, more localised and, at times, more extreme.
The weather is changing — but not in the same way everywhere
Pakistan’s recent seasonal climate data shows why a single national picture can be misleading.
According to Pakistan Meteorological Department data, rainfall between December 2025 and February 2026 was 11 percent below normal nationally. But that national figure concealed major regional differences.
Punjab recorded a much larger rainfall deficit of 36.3 percent, while Gilgit-Baltistan recorded a deficit of 28.8 percent. Sindh, meanwhile, received rainfall well above normal during the same period.
These differences matter.
A rainfall deficit in one region can put pressure on crops, groundwater and water supplies, while intense rainfall elsewhere can overwhelm drainage systems, trigger flooding and damage infrastructure.
The challenge for Pakistan is therefore not simply whether the country receives more or less rain. It is where the rain falls, when it falls and how intensely it arrives.
When seasonal averages hide the real story
A season can end with rainfall close to its normal average while people experience highly unusual weather throughout that period.
Rain that normally arrives over several weeks can instead fall during one or two intense spells. The result can be a strange combination: water stress during prolonged dry periods followed by flooding when rainfall finally arrives.
This is why a normal seasonal rainfall total does not necessarily mean normal weather.
The timing, intensity and distribution of rainfall can be just as important as the final seasonal figure.
For farmers, that can mean crops facing moisture stress before receiving excessive rain. For cities, it can mean dry conditions followed by drainage systems being overwhelmed within hours. For mountainous communities, intense rainfall can quickly turn streams and rivers into destructive flood channels.
Pakistan therefore needs to look beyond averages and pay greater attention to local and short-duration weather extremes.
A few kilometres can make a difference
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa offers a useful example of just how localised rainfall can become.
Take Peshawar and Nowshera. The two areas are geographically close, yet their rainfall patterns can be significantly different. Peshawar generally receives around 200 to 250 millimetres of rainfall during the monsoon season, while Nowshera’s seasonal average is closer to 300 millimetres.
But averages do not tell the entire story.
During a particular season, Nowshera can receive enough rainfall to reach its seasonal average while Peshawar, only around 16 to 17 kilometres away, remains below its expected total.
The differences can become even more striking at individual weather stations.
In Pashtun Gahri, Nowshera, one weather station recorded around 31 millimetres of rainfall during a particular event, while another station roughly five kilometres away recorded around 12 millimetres. A station around 10 to 12 kilometres away recorded only about six millimetres.
Thirty-one millimetres in one location, 12 in another and six farther away.
On a map, these locations are neighbours. On the ground, their weather experience can be completely different.
This is why district-wide or provincial rainfall averages can sometimes hide the conditions people are actually experiencing.
Pakistan has already seen what extreme rainfall can do
The danger is not theoretical.
Islamabad and Rawalpindi have experienced episodes of exceptionally heavy rainfall, while the Margalla Hills have also recorded intense rainfall over short periods.
In mountainous areas, the risks can be even greater. Steep terrain, rivers and streams can turn intense rainfall into flash floods within a short period.
The devastating floods and cloudburst-related events in Buner and Shangla in August 2025 demonstrated the consequences when extreme rainfall meets vulnerable communities.
Hundreds of people lost their lives across the province, while homes, roads and other infrastructure were damaged and communities were severely affected.
Such individual events should not automatically be attributed to a particular climate phenomenon without proper attribution studies. But they provide a clear warning about Pakistan’s level of exposure.
The lesson is simple: extreme weather becomes a disaster when it meets vulnerability, exposure and inadequate preparedness.
The mountains are part of the same story
The changing pattern of rainfall is not the only concern.
Pakistan’s northern mountains are an important natural water store, and changes in snowfall, rainfall and the timing of winter precipitation can have consequences far beyond the winter season.
A shift from snowfall towards rainfall, or changes in the timing of the first significant snowfall, can influence snow accumulation, water availability and the timing of snowmelt.
That means a change in precipitation form can eventually become a water-management issue.
For a country already facing pressure on its water resources, monitoring these changes is increasingly important.
A warmer climate changes the background
Natural climate cycles can influence weather from one season to another, but they are now operating in a world that is considerably warmer than it was decades ago.
The current El Niño episode is one of the factors forecasters are watching closely. The World Meteorological Organization expects the event to strengthen and remain influential into the coming months, with potential implications for temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world.
But the important point for Pakistan is not simply whether El Niño makes the country wetter or drier.
Its effects will depend on how the broader climate signal interacts with the monsoon, western disturbances, ocean conditions and Pakistan’s highly varied geography.
At the same time, climate change is altering the background conditions in which these natural variations occur.
Climate change did not cause El Niño. But a natural climate cycle is now occurring in a warmer world.
That distinction matters.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, while warmer oceans can provide additional heat and moisture to weather systems. When the right atmospheric conditions develop, rainfall can become extremely intense over a short period.
The result is a climate system in which extremes can become more consequential even when seasonal averages do not appear extraordinary.
The question is no longer simply: more rain or less rain?
For Pakistan, this is perhaps the most important shift in thinking.
The future cannot be understood simply through the question of whether the country will become wetter or drier.
Some regions may experience rainfall deficits. Others may receive intense rainfall over short periods. Some areas may finish a season close to their historical average while experiencing highly unusual weather along the way.
Southern and western parts of the country can face serious pressure when rainfall remains below normal and water resources are already limited.
At the same time, mountainous areas and rapidly growing cities can remain vulnerable to intense rainfall, flash floods and drainage failures.
The same country can therefore experience water scarcity and water excess at the same time.
That is the complexity Pakistan needs to prepare for.
Are Pakistan’s warning systems ready?
The biggest challenge is not predicting every extreme event months in advance. It is ensuring that useful information reaches the people who need it before an event becomes dangerous.
Better weather stations can improve local observations. More reliable forecasting can give authorities additional time to respond. Early-warning systems can help communities move people, livestock and valuables to safer locations. Better flood management can reduce exposure. Improved water planning can help communities deal with prolonged dry spells.
But a forecast only becomes valuable when people receive it early enough to act.
Similarly, a rainfall measurement becomes much more useful when it helps authorities understand what is happening at the local level rather than relying only on national or provincial averages.
Preparedness must become local
Pakistan’s climate response cannot remain limited to national-level forecasts and broad seasonal outlooks.
Provincial and district administrations need access to timely, location-specific information. Farmers need practical guidance about changing rainfall and temperature patterns. Cities need stronger drainage and contingency plans for sudden heavy rainfall. Communities living near rivers, streams and vulnerable slopes need clear instructions about what to do when warnings are issued.
People also need to be able to distinguish between an official warning and social media speculation.
The objective should not be to create fear.
It should be to create awareness that leads to action.
The real risk may be unpreparedness
Pakistan cannot control the Pacific Ocean. It cannot stop natural climate cycles. And it cannot immediately reverse the warming of the planet.
But it can control how prepared it is.
The country can invest in stronger weather observation networks, improve local forecasting, strengthen early-warning systems, upgrade drainage and flood-management infrastructure, and improve communication between weather authorities, administrations and communities.
It can also use past disasters as lessons rather than treating each event as an isolated tragedy.
The most useful question after an extreme event is not only what happened.
It is: What can be changed before it happens again?
The weather event will pass. The bigger challenge will remain
The current El Niño event will eventually weaken. That is the nature of natural climate variability.
Pakistan’s warming climate, however, will remain.
That is why the current situation should not be viewed simply as another weather event. It should be treated as an opportunity to understand how natural climate variability and long-term warming are increasingly interacting with Pakistan’s existing vulnerabilities.
The country does not need to predict every drop of rain months in advance.
It needs to become better prepared for a climate in which rainfall can arrive late, disappear for weeks and then return with overwhelming intensity.
A dry spell does not automatically mean a disaster. Heavy rain does not always mean a flood.
What matters is the combination of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and preparedness.
Act today, save tomorrow
El Niño is real, but fear should not be the response.
Weather and climate risks cannot always be stopped, but their impacts can often be reduced when people receive the right information and authorities act at the right time.
For Pakistan, this should be a period of awareness, not panic.
Provincial and district administrations, weather authorities and local communities need to work together, communicate risks clearly and make timely decisions based on reliable forecasts rather than social media hype.
Farmers need practical guidance. Cities need to remain prepared for sudden heavy rainfall. People living in vulnerable areas need to know what actions to take when warnings are issued.
The weather will continue to change.
The question is whether Pakistan will change fast enough to prepare for it.
We cannot control the weather. We cannot control the Pacific Ocean. But we can control how prepared we are.
The real lesson is not to fear what comes next, but to understand it, prepare for it and act before a weather event becomes a disaster.
Act today. Save tomorrow.
Journalist Sadiq Khan also contributed to this article, providing additional reporting and context.
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